Informed Comment

Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Turkey's pugnacious president, is now the country's longest-serving leader. On his way to the top, he has fought many wars. This book tells the story of those battles against domestic enemies through the lens of the Syrian conflict, which has become part and parcel of Erdoğan's fight to remain in power. Turkey expert Gönül Tol traces Erdoğan's ideological evolution from a conservative democrat to an Islamist and a Turkish nationalist, and explores how this progression has come to shape his Syria policy, changing the course of the war. She paints a vivid picture of the president's constantly shifting strategy to consolidate his rule, showing that these shifts have transformed Turkey's role in post-uprising Syria from an advocate of democracy, to a power fanning the flames of civil war, to an occupier. From the first days of Erdoğan's rule through the failed coup against him, via the Kurdish peace process, the Arab uprisings and the refugee crisis, this compelling, authoritative book tells the story of one man's quest to remain in power--tying together the fates of two countries, and changing them both forever.

AN INTERNATIONAL BESTSELLER Wall Street Journal Bestseller A Porchlight Book Bestseller Financial Times Best Books of 2020 Yahoo Finance Favorite Business Books of 2020 JP Morgan NextList 2021 selection "Bold, provocative...illuminates why we’re having fewer babies, the middle class is stagnating, unemployment is shifting, and new powers are rising.” ―ADAM GRANT The world is changing drastically before our eyes―will you be prepared for what comes next? A groundbreaking analysis from one of the world's foremost experts on global trends, including analysis on how COVID-19 will amplify and accelerate each of these changes. Once upon a time, the world was neatly divided into prosperous and backward economies. Babies were plentiful, workers outnumbered retirees, and people aspiring towards the middle class yearned to own homes and cars. Companies didn't need to see any further than Europe and the United States to do well. Printed money was legal tender for all debts, public and private. We grew up learning how to "play the game," and we expected the rules to remain the same as we took our first job, started a family, saw our children grow up, and went into retirement with our finances secure. That world―and those rules―are over. By 2030, a new reality will take hold, and before you know it: - There will be more grandparents than grandchildren - The middle-class in Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa will outnumber the US and Europe combined - The global economy will be driven by the non-Western consumer for the first time in modern history - There will be more global wealth owned by women than men - There will be more robots than workers - There will be more computers than human brains - There will be more currencies than countries All these trends, currently underway, will converge in the year 2030 and change everything you know about culture, the economy, and the world. According to Mauro F. Guillen, the only way to truly understand the global transformations underway―and their impacts―is to think laterally. That is, using “peripheral vision,” or approaching problems creatively and from unorthodox points of view. Rather than focusing on a single trend―climate-change or the rise of illiberal regimes, for example―Guillen encourages us to consider the dynamic inter-play between a range of forces that will converge on a single tipping point―2030―that will be, for better or worse, the point of no return. 2030 is both a remarkable guide to the coming changes and an exercise in the power of “lateral thinking,” thereby revolutionizing the way you think about cataclysmic change and its consequences.